Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
